Interactive visualisation of non-infectious disease risk factors, incidence and prevalence in a modelled town of 1,000 people

Switch on every risk factor and half the town still stays well

Cancer, type 2 diabetes and heart disease have no pathogen, so there is nothing to catch. Risk builds from genes, environment, diet and lifestyle, and each one nudges probability rather than deciding fate. Switch on risk factors for a town of 1,000 and watch how many people develop a type 2 diabetes-like condition; then add years and watch which count climbs and which one holds.

Town of 1,000 Risk ×1.0 · 2.0 per 1,000 a year
Switch on risk factors. Add years. Watch which count climbs. Illustrative model.
Prevalence · 20 of 1,000 at year 10
Risk factors switched on
Years followedYear 10
1 5 10 15 20
Read the town as
Prevalence · living with it at year 10 20
Incidence · new cases in year 10 2
Pick an idea

Know This

A risk factor shifts probability, a cause is necessary for the disease, and a chronic disease piles up prevalence even while incidence holds steady.